Update: Members in Myanmar Face Conscription and Potential Civil War
Myanmar—Our brethren continue to face a stressful situation. The Myanmar military is now coming through villages at night looking for men to conscript (women have been excluded so far). Our deacon in the south heard from nearby villages that the Myanmar military is now requiring village Headmen (think mayors) to create a list of 25 young men per village to man a new branch of the military called the People’s Militia. Because of this, in order to escape conscription, several of our young men are leaving their homes in the village and hiding in the rice paddies, jungles or even crossing the border into Malaysia.
I spoke with the pastor of our friends at Church of God Myanmar in central Myanmar. Everyone is alright at this point, but they are in a more difficult situation there. There are 600 military soldiers encamped nearby, and about fifteen miles away is the third largest military outpost with both air force and army. It is on a mountain which I have visited. There they have long artillery that can shoot up to 25 miles. The military is building up in this area because it is located in Karen State, and the Karen National Liberation Army (“KNLA”) is nearby, which is one of the strongest tribal armies.
As you may know, various tribal armies like the KNLA are forming and supporting the newly established National Unity Government (NUG) coalescing around Aung San Suu Kyi, chairperson of the National League for Democracy (“NLD”) which reportedly won 82 percent of the vote in the November 2020 elections. The Myanmar military arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of the NLD on Feb. 1, 2021, under charges of illegally importing walkie-talkies, breaking COVID-19 restrictions, election fraud and other infractions. Her trial began on June 14.
Since the coup, the various tribal armies are training together and helping to train young people who want to fight the Myanmar military. These combined tribal armies are referred to as the Peoples’ Defense Force (“PDF”). Our pastor in the north said that there are about 100,000 people now trained in the PDF. Conversely, how strong the Myanmar military force might be is not known. Our deacon says the Myanmar military claims to have more than 200,000 soldiers, but this is not believed. More than 900 military soldiers are known deserters, and more than 1,000 others have been killed—some by their fellow soldiers, as was the case in one situation where about 200 soldiers were killed by fellow Myanmar military personnel who did not want to fight against the local people. The Myanmar military has cut pay, which is also affecting the attitude of many soldiers who don’t really want to kill civilians anyway. So, the actual strength of the ruling Myanmar military in a battle situation is not fully known.
The PDF is planning for civil war in the near future—possibly in the next weeks. Right now, the PDF is building their arsenal. Our pastor says it is commonly understood that the sources of funding and weapons include countries like South Korea, Japan and the U.S. Once their arsenal is built sufficiently, they plan to give the Myanmar military warning to step down. If they do not, then the NUG and PDF armies will attack.
Our brethren in central Myanmar would be in the middle of some of the more severe fighting if/when this occurs as they are located close to the Myanmar military outposts as well as the KNLA. Their trust is in God for protection. But as their pastor said, they will just have to wait and see where fighting might actually occur, then move to safer locations as the fighting moves.
Please continue to pray for our brethren. In the next weeks, a positive outcome may occur. The Myanmar military might be looking for a way to save face, back out of a serious problem, find Aung San Suu Kyi not guilty and stand down. Or they may double down and lead the country headlong into a full-out civil war.
God is most certainly on His throne, and we look forward to the day when the only force in this world will be Jesus Christ showing humans what true peace really is!