Last week I was giving a sermon on the context of recent world disasters and I projected a scenario of how the next big disaster to strike America could could come from the importation of the H5V1 avian flu virus that has been ravaging poultry in Asia and is responsible for over one hundred deaths. The virus has now spread to parts of Russia and could be spreading to western Europe.

The  fear of this flu virus is a mutation from the animal to the human realm. There is currently no vaccine for this bug and there is no plan to deal with a massive outbreak in this country. What is scary is how easily it could be brought in to the country once it makes a jump to human populations. Over and over in the articles I read the statement is, "not if, but when" it breaks out among the general population. Here is the latest quote from a current Business week article:
 

"Yet the many drumbeats warning of an imminent avian flu outbreak are growing louder. On Sept. 7, a World Health Organization official cautioned that we may be at the last stage before a pandemic virus emerges. "Whether the avian influenza pandemic will occur, that is not the question any more," said Dr. Jai P. Narain, the director of WHO's communicable diseases department. The consensus among infectious disease experts stems from the fact that a flu pandemic has emerged every 25 to 30 years for centuries."

President Bush said today that we are have "serious problems" with our emergency management plans. I sure hope we get them fixed before a pandemic reaches our shores. When it does it will make Katrina seem awfully small.