Egypt Goes to the Polls
A small percentage of Egyptians will go to the polls today to vote on constitutional amendments aimed at consolidating the power of President Hosni Mubarek. Mubarek is aging, he'll be 79 this year, and in time will pass from the scene. Some think his son Gamal is the heir apparent.
Egypt is experiencing a great deal of unrest from trade unions and religious groups. The most influential group is the Muslim Brotherhood which has seen large parliamentary gains in the last election. One of the amendments being voted on would restrict political parties based on religion. This is unrealistic to expect in Egypt which is the birthplace of some of the most virulent forms of current Islamic terrorism.
Stratfor has a summary of the the issues on the ballot:
Egypt at the moment remains very much a single-party state, led by President Hosni Mubarak. It's not clear how healthy he is, but as he is nearing his 79th birthday, a change in leadership in the near- to medium-time seems a safe bet. The NDP holds 311 seats in the 454-seat parliament. The last election, in 2005, gave rise to loud cries of vote-rigging, but the opposition was not strong enough to make the allegations stick or force a new vote. Therefore, with just over a two-thirds majority, the NPD remains strong enough to push through any legislation of its choice.
That's exactly what happened March 19, when the legislature passed some 34 controversial amendments that will consolidate the regime's hold on power. Three of these are particularly noteworthy:
- A measure that gives authorities sweeping powers to monitor the communications of people who are suspected of involvement in terrorism, and to refer them to special military courts. These counterterrorism measures will allow the government to continue with emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.
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A measure that would allow the government to suspend judicial supervision of elections. This law would overturn a June 2000 Supreme Constitutional Court ruling, which mandated that each ballot box be placed under a judge's supervision. Instead, oversight would be given to a "supreme independent council" -- likely an appointed body. -
An amendment designed to roll back the gains made by the Muslim Brotherhood Islamist movement, which increased its representation in parliament six-fold - to 88 seats -- in the last elections. The amended law would prohibit the formation of parties based on religion.
Egypt is only as strong as Mubarek. When he dies it will be an growing challenge to keep a lid on the strong feelings that have been restrained by force since 1981.
A recent WNP article, Egypt's Coming Transition, gives more information on waht is taking place in Egypt.
