John Paul II was the third-longest reigning pope in the history of the Catholic Church, having led the church for 26 years. Yet, in many ways, the world changed more dramatically under his term than under that of any other pope. When the College of Cardinals selected Karol Wojtyla to be the church's 256th pontiff in October 1978, the Shah of Iran was still in power. Ronald Reagan had not been president, nor had Margaret Thatcher become prime minister of England.

There was no EU (only the European Economic Community), no European Parliament, no euro and the eastern bloc of Europe was behind the Iron curtain, ruled by the communist fist of the USSR. The Berlin Wall divided West Germany from their eastern counterparts. The Soviets had not invaded Afghanistan. AIDs had not been identified. Prince Charles had not married Princess Diana Indira Gandhi was prime minister of India. Fernando Marcos ruled the Philippines. Nelson Mandela was still in a South African prison. Although e-mail existed in a limited form, the word "Internet" had not yet been used. More than one-half of the world's population in 2005 had not been born when John Paul donned the papal robes 26 years ago last fall.

Now, AIDs is a household word, and it is ravaging the continent of Africa, where nearly 1/10th of the Roman Catholic Church's 1.2 billion adherents reside. Europe is united, but it isn't a Catholic union. In fact, in spite of the weighty influence of the Polish pope, crafters of the new European Constitution could not be persuaded to acknowledge the continent's Christian roots. The Catholic Church in Europe is disintegrating. And, radical Islam has come from nearly invisible status in 1978 to the point at which it is can hold a gun to the head of the Western world. And, science is presenting the world - and the Vatican - with new ethical questions all the time.

George Weigel wrote a thought-provoking piece for The Washington Post on the factors before the assembled cardinals, as they select (most likely, one of their own) to be the 257th pontiff.

In addition to these weighty questions, the next conclave will be shaped by dramatically altered expectations of the papacy. The world and the church no longer think of the pope as the CEO of Catholic Church Inc. Thanks to John Paul II, the world and the church now expect the pope to exercise a global ministry of religious presence and moral witness. At the same time, influential cardinal-electors believe that John Paul II has been more successful in articulating a robust, compassionate Catholic orthodoxy than in embedding that vision in the church's practice. Finding a man who can do both -- bring the church to the world in a compelling way, and reform the church's discipline -- is the great "personality" issue the cardinals must resolve ("A Crossroad for the Catholic Church ").

For a detailed look at how the College of Cardinals will go about selecting a new pope, as well as a biographical sketch of likely candidates, see our World News and Prophecy article, "The Man Who Would Be Pope ." And, for a vignette on the power of the papacy in light of Bible prophecy, see another World News and Prophecy article, "Papal power in Perspective ."