Why We Watch Europe
Sometimes I am asked, "why do we pay so much attention to Europe, and especially the fortunes of Germany. We have covered that so many times in articles and will do so again in the next issue of WNP. Melvin Rhodes has an article entitled, "Germany's Rising Power". You'll want to read it for insight into Germany's current role in Europe, and increasingly, on the world stage.
Stratfor today has this to say about Germany. It was placed within an analysis of Russia and the Kremlin's recent crackdown on protests.
European history is a chronicle of the rise and fall of its geographic center. As Germany rises, the powers on its periphery buckle under its strength and are forced to pool resources in order to beat back Berlin. As Germany falters, the power vacuum at the middle of the Continent allows the countries on Germany's borders to rise in strength and become major powers themselves.
Since the formation of the first "Germany" in 800, this cycle has set the tempo and tenor of European affairs. A strong Germany means consolidation followed by a catastrophic war; a weak Germany creates a multilateral concert of powers and multi-state competition (often involving war, but not on nearly as large a scale). For Europe this cycle of German rise and fall has run its course three times -- the Holy Roman Empire, Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany -- and is only now entering its fourth iteration with the reunified Germany.
There is much to understand about Europe's future role. It is not the irrelevant "museum" that some claim.
