Reports are mounting that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein may be preparing to step down, thus paving the way for the removal of sanctions against Iraq. He does not particularly need to go, as he is quite effective at breaking U.N. sanctions. However, his would-be partners would prefer to do business above board, and may be urging him to retire. It's a win-win deal for all involved, from Russia to Iraq to the United States. All that remains is for Saddam to figure out how to frame retirement as his last great victory.

Diplomatic sources in Amman, Jordan, have confirmed that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has given new roles to his son, Qusay, and Iraqi Vice President Taha Yashin Ramadan. While the moves may have been made due to Izzat Ibrahim's deteriorating health, there appears to be a deeper meaning. Saddam has also replaced a number of ambassadors in an effort to present a new face to the international community. The changes are likely cosmetic, aimed at repairing Iraq's international image so that the U.N. will lift economic sanctions.

However, the sleepy little war has had a significant character change in the past few weeks. On August 19, U.S. aircraft bombed targets outside of the no-fly zones, inside the central region where Iraq retains clear sovereignty. At about the same time, the U.S. openly shifted its targeting from responsive attacks against aggressive Iraqi moves, to attacks on fuel and ammunition dumps.

About a week after that, an Agence France-Presse report out of Amman claimed that an unnamed Western diplomat had stated that the U.S. and U.K. were preparing a "large-scale" operation against Iraq. Simultaneously, Arab leaders started to condemn Saddam Hussein ostentatiously.

The Jordanians, after an opening to Saddam following the death of King Hussein, cooled their relations with Saddam. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was reported to have "washed his hands" of Iraq. Bashar al-Assad, son of the Syrian president, called Saddam a "human beast." All told, it appears that the war is shifting from its sleepy phase. The question, of course, is what it is shifting to and why it is shifting now (Stratfor.com, August 17, 26 and 30, 1999).