The name "mad cow disease" sounds like someone's idea of a joke-or a B movie title-but there's nothing humorous about it. It's both an international trade issue and health concern.

"Mad cow disease" or simply, "mad cow" is the media's shorthand for BSE, an acronym for "bovine spongiform encephalopathy"-"bovine" for cattle, "encephalopathy" for brain disease and "spongiform" for the dreadful effect that it has on the brain. A protein called a "prion" causes holes, like those in a sponge, to develop in the brain, eventually causing death. Some scientists believe this could be an entirely new type of disease, the scourge of the new millennium. A prion is neither a virus nor bacteria, meaning it cannot be killed or contained by methods familiar to today's medical science. BSE is part of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) family of diseases.

After some hesitation, the EU has finally taken the step of banning animal feed that contains ground-up bones, entrails and other animal by-products, including blood. The EU fears BSE will spread uncontrolled to the continent from Britain, threatening not only livestock, but also people.

Approximately 90 Britons have died from a human version of the disease, which is a new variant of Creutzfeld-Jakob disease and designated as vCJD.

While scientists cannot say with certainty how humans contract vCJD, it is believed that it's transmitted by infected meat that humans consume.

Panic in Europe

The presence of BSE in U.K. cattle was first diagnosed in 1986, but other EU countries were hesitant to implement import restrictions on animal feed made from rendered British animals.

Recent cases of BSE in France and Germany caused widespread alarm, bordering on panic. EU officials immediately proposed draconian measures that could result in the destruction of up to 2 million cattle that cannot be certified as BSE-free.

Not surprisingly, European consumers have lost their taste for beef, regardless of whether officials declare it safe. Concerned parents demanded the removal of beef from school menus in nearly two dozen French school districts, as well as in Geneva. Many German restaurants are no longer serving beef. Both beef and pork are absent from the German parliament's canteen, and beef is no longer served to German soldiers.

German consumers turned to venison when the BSE scare started a few months ago, but have since learned that the deer apparently were fed the same contaminated feed that transmitted BSE to German cattle.

A small city zoo in Berlin reported that staff members hungry for meat had stolen and eaten geese, ducks and hens from the zoo!

One French slaughterhouse reported a 65 percent fall off in business and will likely be put out of business altogether. Italian abattoirs have lost 70 percent of their business since the scare began. Similar reports come out of Spain and Portugal. Governments and producers have moved to attempt to restore consumer confidence, but beef is a tough sell.

The discovery of a batch of BSE-contaminated meat on supermarket shelvesin Britain in October 2000 did little to alleviate concerns-there or elsewhere. European Commission (EC) figures as of January 28 show that beef prices have fallen by nearly 25 percent since last October. The EU's agriculture minister, Franz Fischler, described the effect of the mad cow scare as "alarming."

Hamburger giant McDonald's reported a 7 percent drop in fourth quarter earnings for 2000, due to a 10 percent reduction in sales in Europe-as a direct result of the BSE scare that began to be publicized in November of last year. (Europe is McDonald's second largest market, behind the U.S.) An AP report on February 7 noted that the sale of beef had fallen 27 percent throughout the EU since October.

In addition to the recently proposed EU action to wipe out millions of cattle, Britain has destroyed 4.5 million cattle since the outbreak of BSE was first discovered. The domino effect on the economies of EU countries is clearly staggering. The EC estimates that the crisis could cost the EU an extra billion dollars and put other agriculture programs at risk.

Science has been painstakingly slow in determining the existence of BSE, how it is spread and whether it can be transmitted to humans. British officials did not announce the link between the bovine version of the disease and the human version, vCJD, until 1996. The EU immediately banned the export of U.K. beef worldwide.

USDA action timely, or too late?

Heeding the potentially disastrous consequences of the EU's delayed actions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) banned imports of animal feed that contains ground-up animals as early as 1989. The ban on all meat and bone imports was extended in 1997 to include all of Europe, but contradicting reports indicate that these bans were not taken seriously or not fully enforced until December 2000.

Up until that time, imported feed from rendered animals had been used to feed chickens and pigs, as well as cattle and sheep. Now, the USDA wants to destroy two flocks of Vermont sheep, based upon fear that they have contacted BSE through imported feed. The incubation period for BSE is so long that the possibility that U.S. stock is infected cannot be ruled out.

Another spongiform encephalopathy disease called "scrapie" has been found in sheep and goats for centuries. While fatal to infected animals, there is no proof that this form of the disease has ever been transmitted to humans. Therefore, sheep producers are reluctant to cooperate with the USDA's wish to destroy their flocks and are fighting the order.

Who is right? "Skeptics argue...that there is no way to prove that the species barrier cannot be surmounted," reportedThe Atlantic Monthly("Could Mad Cow Disease Happen Here?" a 3-part series by Ellen Ruppel Shell, 1998, part 1, p. 6).

Sheep and cattle are not the only animals that can have a type of TSE. "Strains of TSE have been found in sheep, goats, elk, mule deer, white-tailed deer, mink and cats" (ibid., part 2, p. 2). The strain in deer and elk is called chronic wasting disease.

Confident assertions by the USDA that no BSE exists in the U.S. sound hollow against the backdrop of the above information, as well as the fact that the USDA has tested only 12,000 U.S. cattle in the past 10 years—out of approximately 100 million ("Americans Wake Up to Threat of Mad Cow Disease" by Greg McCune, Reuters, January 28, 2001).

Blood could proliferate vCJD

Although not confirmed, human blood and blood plasma are thought to be possible transmitters of vCJD through transfusions. Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and the U.S. are among the countries that have banned blood donations by people who spent more than six months in Britain between 1980 and 1996.

In a special report on the BSE crisis, a February 5th article in The Guardian said blood products donated by three people who later contracted vCJD had been sold to 11 countries: Ireland, Brazil, Dubai, India, Turkey, Brunei, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Russia and Singapore ("CJD Link to Blood Britain Sold Abroad" by James Meikle and Alex Bellos.)

The United States is experiencing a nationwide blood shortage, due in part to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) ban on potentially infected blood donations. Australia is considering a similar ban-and counting the cost. Recent news stories in the Australian press estimate that up to "$6 million will be spent each year, calling for blood donations" to replace those lost because of the ban (The Age/Sydney Morning Herald, "Blood Shortage Fears as CJD Ban Likely," September 19, 2000, p. 1).

Fearing infected blood, German hemophiliacs and their families are campaigning for all patients to receive synthetic blood instead of human blood or blood-products.

While the bans may give comfort to some, the parameters of 1980-1996 as the years during which people spent more than six months in Britain are somewhat arbitrary. Consider this chilling fact fromThe Atlantic Monthlyseries: It takes up to 30 years for humans infected with TSE to manifest symptoms (part 1, p. 3).

How many people might be infected with vCJD? An October 26, 2000, CNN report says, "Estimates of new infections range from hundreds to millions..." Should we be concerned? The United Nations is.

UN investigates "worldwide exposure"

In late December 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) "expressed concern about what it called 'exposure worldwide' to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and its fatal human form...(vCJD). The United Nations health agency said that it would convene a major meeting of experts and officials from all regions on the neurodegenerative diseases that affect cattle and humans. It will be held in Geneva in late spring, probably in May" ("WHO to Convene Meeting on Global Risk of vCJD," Reuters, December 26, 2000, p. 1).

Given the latest news on BSE-infected cattle in France and Germany, WHO is concerned about beef exports from all EU countries, not just Britain. But, how easily can they track infected meat or animal by-products?

It's shocking to learn that "exported beef and meat products [are] often repackaged or transformed before being re-exported with new labeling" (ibid., p. 1). Tracing them becomes difficult, if not impossible.

With its citizens starving from famine, North Korea is ready to take donated beef from 400,000 cattle that Germany plans to slaughter. (The EU believes that it needs to create an artificial shortage of beef in order to buttress plummeting beef prices.) The cattle will be tested for BSE before being butchered-but the tests are not 100 percent reliable, and the Koreans face an undefined risk by consuming it.

In early February, China announced that it would begin testing cattle in response to fears that BSE may have been imported in infected animals or through contaminated feed.

Another problem is the fact that much of the world does not have the sophisticated testing equipment available to wealthy Western countries. Blue Sky News reported the first suspected case of vCJD in Russia, "raising fears that rules agreed [to] in Western Europe to contain BSE may not prevent its spreading much further afield" ("Fears That BSE Has Reached Russia," December 6, 2000, p. 1). Quoting the Russian newspaperIzvestiya, "There is no laboratory in Russia that is able accurately to determine whether...BSE is present in meat." It adds that Russia is not likely able to impose the kind of tough restrictions on meat production and distribution that the EU, the U.S. and other countries have.

Horrifying new discovery

Alarming scientific findings were reported in the British press in August last year. Previously, it was thought that BSE did not jump from species to species very easily. Additionally, the general belief was that only clinically infected animals could transmit BSE.

A world-renowned expert on BSE, Professor John Collinge, has published findings that challenge both assumptions. Beef products contaminated with BSE rendered into animal feed that is fed to pigs, sheep and chickens could infect them with BSE, as well-and, conceivably, the humans who consume their flesh.

Even more alarming is the discovery that animals can be infected with BSE at a sub-clinical level. A clinical infection is manifested by outward symptoms. By contrast, the sub-clinical infection manifests no symptoms, although the infected animal can still transmit the disease.

The research may force authorities to reassess the scale of the BSE epidemic in cattle, as well as its potential for wider transmission.

Potential human and economic catastrophe

British beef producers have been hit the hardest up until recently. Now, the economies of other EU countries are being affected. Government ministers in Germany have been forced to step down to take responsibility for the outbreak of BSE there. The short-term panic has already caused the beef industry considerable losses and more will undoubtedly come before the BSE scare dies down—if it does. The more that is known about BSE and vCJD, the more likely it is that increasing numbers of people worldwide will reduce or stop their consumption of beef.

To date, the United States has dodged the BSE bullet. However, one wonders if that will continue in light of the facts brought out in this article. Even without BSE infection, meat producers (including pork and poultry producers) will have to bear the cost of providing their stock with feed free of animal by-products. A logical assumption is that beef producers will probably face mandatory BSE screening tests for their stock.

Normally, increased costs would be passed along to the consumer. Will that be possible, if the consumer is already hesitant to buy the product?

Another question looms: Will investors pull their money out of beef ventures? McDonald's direct losses in European sales are noted above. McDonald's stock and cattle futures prices fell after the FDA announced on January 25 that it had quarantined some Texas cattle that had reportedly been fed some of the banned feed-made from rendered cattle.

"'The government agencies say they have erected this firewall (against mad cow). We don't have a firewall. It's more like a white picket fence,' said Michael Hansen, a research associate with the Consumers Union in Washington" (Greg McCune, emphasis added).

One of the most recent British victims to succumb to vCJD rarely ate beef, according to his sister. Another victim, a young man about 20 years old, had been a vegetarian since he was 15.

Obviously, one doesn't have to consume large quantities of beef to contract the disease. This fact might further depress sales of beef.

That brings us to the human cost of the crisis. Although the numbers of human victims of vCJD to date are relatively low, their suffering and that of their families has been great. vCJD is a terrible, nightmarish disease-and no cure exists for it.

If BSE is "out of the box," unable to be contained, the potential loss of human life to vCJD could be considerable. Given the litigious society in which we live, the potential for damage claims in civil suits is enormous-another potential economic blow.

"Your cattle will be cursed"

Christ foretold a dark time of health plagues as part of the "beginning of sorrows" (Matthew 24:7-8) that lead to the collapse of the age of man, shortly before the beginning of the millennial age of God. A detailed prophecy about "pestilence" is found in Leviticus 26:25 in the context of a warning from God to His covenant people. They could expect this kind of terror, should they refuse to live as God had instructed them.

The Hebrew word for "pestilence," deber, means murrain, pestilence or plague (Strong's Concordance). The word is usually associated with death (Vine's Expository Dictionary of Biblical Words, 1985, "Pestilence").

A parallel reference in Deuteronomy is more specific: "Cursed shall be the fruit of your body and the produce of your land, the increase of your cattle and the offspring of your flocks.... The LORD will strike you with madness and blindness and confusion of heart" (Deuteronomy 28:18, 28).

Whether vCJD is the beginning of the fulfillment of these sober words or only a harbinger of things to come will become clear in time.

Thankfully, as terrible as this dark period will be, it will quickly pass and give way to the world that God will create through Christ and His saints. In that "Promised Land" to come, those who love and worship God can anticipate: "Blessed shall you be in the city, and blessed shall you be in the country. Blessed shall be...the increase of your cattle and the offspring of your flocks" (Deuteronomy 28:3-4). WNP