After three wars between Germany and France in seven decades, both countries were determined to avoid any further conflict between them. This commitment laid the foundation for the European Union, soon to be a 25-member economic union of European countries. It will surpass the United States as the world's biggest single economic power in May of next year, when 10 new countries join the EU.

Shortly after the 1957 signing of the Treaty of Rome that created what was then called the European Economic Community (EEC)—a treaty that bound the two former belligerents with Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, the original six members—the two leaders of France and Germany met in January 1963 to sign a treaty of friendship. Significantly, the two leaders were giants in the history of their respective nations—Konrad Adenauer, the first chancellor of the postwar Federal Republic of (West) Germany, and France's President Charles de Gaulle, the founder of the Fifth Republic, who ended the instability and infighting that had plagued his country in the postwar years.

Exactly four decades later, on Jan. 22, 2003, the two nations made another giant leap forward as the driving force of the new Europe.

Meeting in the Palace of Versailles, symbolic for both nations, the parliaments of the two nations sat in joint session, an occasion unprecedented in the history of nations. Plans call for future joint cabinet meetings, thereby further cementing the close ties between the two countries.

Prior to the joint parliamentary session, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and President Jacques Chirac met together and set the pace for the future destiny of Europe by refusing to endorse a U.S./U.K. led attack on Iraq. Anti-Americanism has been one of the driving forces behind the thrust for European union—a feeling that there is an urgent need for another superpower to stop American "unilateralism" in military adventures like the one against Saddam Hussein.

Americans find this lack of support from "allies" perplexing. France and Germany are not the only two allies of the United States against the war. Greece, another EU member and current holder of the presidency of the European Council of Ministers, along with some of the other members of the EU are also against military action.

All these "allies" are fellow members of NATO, formed in 1949. NATO was set up at a time when the Soviet Union and its communist satellites in eastern Europe were threatening the freedom and independence of the western half of the continent. NATO guaranteed that if one member nation was attacked by an external force, all the members would take that as an attack on all and react accordingly. The first time this mutual assistance accord was invoked was after Sept. 11, 2001, when member nations came to the aid of the United States. Technically, the NATO treaty does not apply in the Iraqi situation as Iraq has not attacked any member state. It is also outside of the North Atlantic-European theater of operations. Additionally, the perceived purpose of an invasion of Iraq, in the words of U.S. President George Bush, is "regime change," something not sanctioned by either NATO or the UN.

Seismic shift in geopolitics

Not even 18 months has gone by since the events of Sept. 11, but that day has led to a seismic shift in geopolitics. The signs were already there prior to the attacks on Washington, D.C., and New York, but it has since become clearer that the world is dividing into three forces, all competing for universal dominance.

The first force is led by the United States and is a capitalist free-for-all that is strongly based on individualism, promising unlimited opportunities for the creation of wealth and the acquisition of more material possessions. This force dreams of globalization, the opening up of all markets to enable it to continue to grow and prosper. Out of the three, this force is the youngest. As U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan pointed out when in London recently to receive an honorary knighthood from the queen, it all started in England about 300 years ago.

The second force, in embryonic form since the fall of the shah of Iran in 1979, is radical Islamics using force to promote their political views. In fact, the origins of this can be traced back to Muhammad 14 centuries ago, but its most recent incarnation first appeared on the world scene with the overthrow of the pro-Western shah and the holding of American hostages in the U.S. embassy for 444 days, finally released the day of U.S. President Ronald Reagan's inauguration. If anybody had any doubts about where these radical Islamics were headed, the events of Sept. 11 should have made it a lot clearer. As with the American economic system, radical Islamics seek universal domination, believing that the world will not have true peace until everybody on the planet is a Muslim. Although not all Muslims are fundamentalists, extremism is growing and all Muslims share the goal of a world completely converted to Islam.

The third force has also been in embryonic form for a long time, tracing its origins back centuries, further even than Islam, back to the days of the Roman Empire. This force has developed greatly in the aftermath of 9/11, emerging as a serious contender for global leadership. It is the European Union.

These three competing forces do not have clearly defined demarcation lines. There are, for example, Muslims in the United States and the European Union. The United Kingdom remains a member of the EU but is arguably in the American camp. One of America's two biggest political parties would be quite comfortable with the EU model, while there are those in Europe who would prefer to be more American. In the Islamic world, some have embraced many of the materialistic values of the United States while remaining followers of Muhammad. But the three overall forces are extant, nonetheless, becoming clearer as the ripple effect from Sept. 11 settles.

Western divisions

There are similarities between the EU and the United States, but there are also many differences. As with America, the EU encourages private enterprise—up to a point. The role of the government in each EU member nation is greater than in the United States, theoretically ensuring a more equitable division of wealth.

One division increasingly apparent is in the area of faith. Americans are much more religious than Europeans, with faith influencing politics in the United States in a way that has not been seen in Europe for two centuries. One commentator interviewed on BBC radio thought that the strong religious beliefs of both President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair were a factor in their alienation from other Western nations.

Historical experience and perspective is also different on both sides of the Atlantic. Europeans are surrounded by history, with castles and cathedrals that are sometimes over a thousand years old. Awareness of history is much greater than in the United States.

Americans tend not to look back. Europeans are looking back, learning from the lessons of the past before moving forward. With so many wars in their collective history, the nations of Europe are determined to unite their continent in such a way that never again will there be a repeat of World Wars I and II. Conscious of the past, they are also determined that no other nation will bring about a cataclysm to rival those former conflicts. Opposition to war is therefore greater in Europe than in the United States, though opposition in America is also increasing.

Remembering the two world wars of the 20th century, Americans see themselves as the saviors of Europe and cannot understand what they perceive to be the ingratitude of today's Europeans.

The perspective in Europe is somewhat different.

The French perception, for example, is that America betrayed them twice in the 1950s, in consequence bringing about the collapse of the Fourth Republic in 1958. Both betrayals were during the Eisenhower administration. The first, in 1954, was the failure of the United States to come through with requested military aid at the battle of Dien Bien Phu, which resulted in a French defeat and the loss of Indochina. The United States also paid a penalty for this decision, as the Vietnam War was the consequence of French withdrawal. Two years later, in 1956, American pressure forced Britain and France to withdraw from Suez after a combined military force had retrieved the Suez Canal, seized by Egypt. This, in turn, led to the French losing Algeria, the home of over a million French nationals.

The British learned from this that they amounted to little without American support and have been firm supporters of the United States in subsequent decades. The French learned a different lesson—that they could never trust America, still a complication for U.S. foreign policy at this time. It can, of course, be said that the Americans have learned the same about France.

Franco-German ties

Closer to home, the French have also learned the necessity of a close relationship with Germany. German troops arrived in Paris during the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 (leading to the fall of the Second French Empire of Napoleon III) and again in 1940. In the interim, World War I saw massive loss of French lives. Three conflicts in 70 years. "Never again," is the French wish.

In the geopolitical context, this means that Paris and Berlin view their relationship with each other to be of far greater importance than the relationship each has with Washington or London.

Making the Paris-Berlin axis of greater importance was the reunification of Germany following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the more recent transference of Germany's capital to Berlin. Both events emboldened Germany to play a much greater role in world affairs. This has even been encouraged by Washington which, forgetting the lessons of Germany's militaristic past, requested that Berlin send troops to the Balkans and Afghanistan.

Always fearful of a resurgent Germany, the French are not about to loosen the ties that bind them to their bigger neighbor. Franco-German ties remain of paramount importance.

They are of importance to Germany as well. Many liberal Germans, mindful of Germany causing two world wars in 25 years, want Germany to be firmly contained within the EU, as do the other member nations. As France is the second biggest nation in the EU after Germany, the French connection is important to Germany as well. The Germans gain international respectability through this close link.

This is not to say that the countries have the same vision for Europe. The Germans want a federal Europe, modeled on the German system. The French prefer a confederation with power remaining in the hands of national governments. However, both are committed to a full European Union, a superpower to rival the United States.

Economically, it already does. The EU controls more of the world's trade than the United States, giving it greater global economic clout. For example, Europe recently demanded that Iran abolish the death penalty before any trade agreement could be signed. European economic power is set to become far greater when the 10 new members join in May 2004. Largely unnoticed in the United States, the European currency, only one year old in January, has surpassed the American dollar in value, a reflection of growing international confidence in Europe at the expense of America. The disparity between the two currencies may widen in the event of further conflict in the Middle East.

In foreign policy, the United States and the EU disagree most over the Middle East. This is partly the result of divergent economic interests, with the Europeans more dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf. On the issue of Israel and the Palestinians, European support of the latter stands in stark contrast to American support for Israel.

Rising Islamic power

This brings us back to the other force in this geopolitical trinity—radical Islamics. Again, Europeans have a different perspective of Islam than the Americans do. Apart from terrorism, let's consider the political power of Islam in Europe.

Most Americans are aware of how powerful a force American Jews have been in determining the course of American elections. What few realize is that the percentage of Muslims in Western Europe is far greater than the percentage of Jews in America, making Islam a major factor in European politics. Fearful of domestic upheaval, European governments tread carefully in dealing with Islamic nations of the Middle East.

If European governments support an attack on Iraq, the consequences at home could be disastrous.

The announced formation of a pan-European Islamic political party in January can only add to the fears of European governments. There are more Muslims in Europe than there are French nationals. Almost all of these people have arrived in Europe since World War II or are the children of immigrants.

Sept. 11 has increased European fears of attacks by radical Islamic elements, repeatedly a historic threat to the continent. The Muslim Ottoman Turks twice attacked the city of Vienna in the 16th and 17th centuries, while Moorish Muslims reached the gates of Paris in the eighth century.

Biblical importance of the three forces

For decades, the Church of God's publications have been focusing the attention of readers on these three forces now at the forefront of world affairs. How did we know that these competing powers would come to dominate the world scene?

The answer is found in the pages of your Bible. In the book of Daniel we read, "There is a God in heaven who reveals secrets" (Daniel 2:28). In verse 21 we note that God "removes kings and raises up kings." In the prophetic book of Amos we see, "Surely, the Lord God does nothing, unless He reveals His secret to His servants the prophets" (Amos 3:7). Almost one third of the Bible is prophecy and most of that prophecy relates to end-time events that usher in the Kingdom of God.

Throughout history, nations have continually risen and fallen. No power that reaches the top remains there for long. Before World War II, the British Empire was the dominant force in the world and had been for two centuries. Before Britain, it was France; before France, Spain. Two thousand years ago, the Roman Empire was the mightiest force on earth. God truly does remove and set up kings.

Before the second coming of Jesus Christ, the Bible shows us there will be another powerful force in the world that is presently not clearly seen. This is a final resurrection of the European-centered Roman Empire, which dominated Europe until the fifth century. Various attempts have been made throughout history to restore Rome's glory. The last failed attempt was under Mussolini, who proclaimed the resurrection of the Roman Empire in 1922. Later, in alliance with Hitler's Germany, the original "axis of evil" attempted to conquer the world. Together, they succeeded in briefly conquering most of Europe.

Europe is again coming together, this time not by force, but voluntarily. The two dominant nations of the new Europe are Germany and France. Forty years after these two ancient nations signed a treaty of friendship, they are now flexing their muscles by refusing to back the United States and Britain in war against Iraq. At the same time, they are pushing vigorously for a full military and political union of Europe's ancient continent, a revived Roman Empire founded by the 1957 Treaty of Rome.

Prophecy shows this power coming together for a short time prior to Christ's return. It will be more powerful than the United States and will threaten the peace of the world (Revelation 17:12-14).

Pushing at this prophesied European "beast" power in the northern hemisphere will be a powerful nation or group of nations led by "the king of the South," possibly emerging now as radical elements of the Islamic world increasingly turn against the West and nonbelievers.

Meanwhile, more and more, the United States and Britain will see the world turning against them. These modern descendants of the biblical tribe of Joseph, part of the house of Israel, have progressively turned away from God in recent decades and will soon reap the consequences of their national sins. God says that He will "break the pride of [their] power" (Leviticus 26:19).

The relative decline of the English-speaking nations, the gradual rise of Europe and the sudden emergence of Islamic extremists with increased problems in the Middle East were prophesied in your Bibles centuries ago. These powerful forces are destined to clash prior to the second coming of Jesus Christ to establish the Kingdom of God upon the earth. —WNP