Indonesia's coming presidential elections have created enormous social and political tension domestically, and they have significant strategic implications. With U.S.-Chinese relations at their lowest point in years, the possibility of confrontation over Indonesia is substantial. Indonesia is vital strategically, sitting astride the trade routes between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Everything from Japanese oil supplies, to Singapore's banking system and U.S. power projection in the Persian Gulf, are at risk in an Indonesian crisis. The crisis is also an opportunity for China to do what Russia did in Yugoslavia: make it clear to the United States and the region that China cannot be excluded from the regional dynamic and that the U.S. does not have the ability, without Chinese cooperation, to act in Asia. Everything is in place for a crisis that could dwarf Kosovo in global significance (STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update, May 10, 1999).