This autumn has been quite positive for Germany's Minister of the Environment Jürgen Trittin, a member of the the Green Party, the governing coalition's junior partner. After some initial criticism, his government's subsidy program for wind-powered electricity was renewed with only minor modification. A new government-subsidized geothermal electricity plant near Berlin also went on line. But perhaps the greatest satisfaction for Minister Trittin was the decommissioning in mid-November of the first of Germany's 19 atomic energy plants in Stade near Hamburg.

When Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder replaced Helmut Kohl's government in 1998, the Green Party made the elimination of nuclear power plants a condition for its participation in Schroeder's coalition. The electricity industry initially protested. However, after receiving assurances that its nuclear plants would be able to remain on line another 20 years, the industry acquiesced and began preparations for alternative energy sources.

Atomic power plants currently provide approximately 30 percent of Germany's electrical consumption. Minister Trittin's alternative electrical generation projects may help the environment, but fall far short of making up the gap that will be left by abandoning atomic power. The only natural resource that Germany has in abundance is coal, but as a signatory to the Kyoto protocol—and a vocal critic of U.S. President George W. Bush for abandoning that agreement—Germany is committed to reducing its use of coal. Oil has to be imported and is subject to the same Kyoto restraints as coal.

Clean-burning natural gas is the logical choice for Germany's looming energy gap. That gap, however, has important foreign policy implications for Chancellor Schroeder's government and its successors. To replace all electricity now generated by atomic power, Germany's consumption of natural gas would increase by an estimated 50 percent. Since demand is increasing, that figure will be higher by 2021, when the last atomic plant goes off line. Currently 52 percent of Germany's natural gas requirements are met by imports from the Netherlands, Norway, Britain and Denmark. Much of the remaining amount comes from Russia. And of those suppliers, only Russia has the reserves needed to provide Germany's growing appetite for natural gas.

Unless a future conservative German government reverses the abandonment of nuclear power or decides to drastically increase the use of domestic coal—and violate the Kyoto protocol—Germany will be dependent on energy imports from Russia for at least a third of its electrical power needs. By 2010 Russia will provide more than half of Germany's energy imports from all sources (oil and natural gas). Ensuring that the gas pipeline from Russia remains open or responding to its unforeseen closure will surely impact Germany's foreign policy initiatives toward the east.

Sources: Reuters; The Independent (U.K.).