Global Intelligence Update Decade Forecasts

Stratfor, Inc. issued a series of forecasts for the coming decade for key areas of the world. They are well worth reading.

Aging U.S. baby boomers: The first is for the United States. Stratfor foresees continued prosperity for the U.S. for the first half of the decade, with a potential downturn beginning after 2005. Two outstanding aspects of the analysis focus upon the changing demographics of the U.S. population and the indicators of the current political winds blowing through the presidential election campaign. When the baby boomers cease to invest in 401k's and begin to withdraw their retirements, this will profoundly dampen the markets. Regarding presidential politics, Stratfor notes that the philosophy of the fringes often has been a precursor of mainstream thought. On that basis, they speculate that the U.S. will grow increasingly isolationist-not in the next administration, but in subsequent ones.

Asian military increasingly important: The second region analyzed was Asia and Japan. Declaring that the future of Asia depends upon the largest nation and the largest economy, Stratfor centers its predictions upon China, the largest nation, and Japan, the largest economy. A glance backward reminds us that Asia recently seemed to be ready to surpass the U.S. economically, only to become embroiled in serious crises. "Asia will emerge from the current economic crisis in a markedly changed condition, but it will remain an influential and potentially dangerous region." The forecast sees potential national fragmentation in China. Japan is strengthening its military with a current defense budget of $35 billion, surpassed only by the U.S. and Russia. The generation now assuming power in Japan will be less encumbered by past negatives. The Asians will look to create a political framework after the European model.

Russia wants its empire back: The third analysis, titled "The Pendulum of Democracy Swings Away From the West," focuses on Russia. Russia has bluntly rattled its nuclear saber once again, reminding the entire world that it wants to be thought of as a major power. Recent forays into Chechnya are indicative of a Russian intent to reassemble its old empire, a task that will take much of the next decade and that promises to be bloody. The assertion of military power has been popular with the Russian people. (Vladimir Putin's sudden assumption of the presidency came after Stratfor issued its analysis; it lends credence to the prediction.) Stratfor also looks for collaboration between Russia and China to limit American power.

Competing forces in Europe: The analysis of Europe is a remarkable amplification of the prophetic image of "partly of potter's clay and partly of iron" (Daniel 2:41), as Stratfor's analysts detail the forces working for-and against-continued union. Stratfor has been negative about the potential for the success of the EMU since before its inception, and offers a detailed explanation of why it's in the self-interest of some European nations to see monetary union fail. It's much more difficult to accomplish a monetary union than a united market. What the analysis frankly summarizes about Germany is startling. "German unification, at least for the past century, has signaled a coming war." This report doesn't predict that Germany will start another war, but looks closely at the dynamics at work.

Peaceful Middle East? The fifth analysis, "The Middle East: A Peaceful Backwater," assaults the senses with its title alone. With an understanding of biblical prophecy, we wouldn't choose those words to describe this pivotal region-even if it appears to be peaceful. Within the Arab countries, major change is imminent due to the aging of its leadership. Since republican leaders have been in power so long, there is no established means for a transition of power. In concert with that is the fact that there are strong indications of a rise in "Islamic Republicanism"-that is, a republican government in the European tradition that is Islamic after the Iranian model.

Arab unity, promised by Nasser and those who patterned their regimes after his republican, anti-cleric government, has failed to materialize. They have "failed either to modernize or [to] satisfy the psychological needs of their people." The situation over the next 10 years is ripe for a "resurgent and powerful fundamentalist movement [to sweep] the Islamic world."

What of Israel? Instability is foreseen as the nation struggles with its identity. "Is Israel a secular republic that happens to be ethnically Jewish or is it a Jewish state under Jewish law?" Nonetheless, Israel's ability to deal with Sadat, then Mubarak and now Syria's Assad blunted the one-time Arab goal of exterminating Israel. (As an aside, the analysis of the value of the Camp David Accord in comparison with the one-to-one dealings between Israel and Syria makes for eye-opening reading.)

Stratfor's overall prediction for the world from 2000 to 2010 is that we should expect a de-synchronization of the world's nations, a profound realignment.

Stratfor also issued decade forecasts for Latin America and Africa. Stratfor's Web address is www.stratfor.com.