The worst fears people hold about terrorists appear confirmed. A former Soviet military intelligence agent says he knows with certainty that al Qaeda possesses small atomic warheads. They're the suitcase-style weapons, obtained from Russia. A senior Western intelligence official verifies that the terrorists have nine of these suitcase weapons, purchased at a price of $30 million and 2 tons of opium.

Russia receives much press for their suitcase bombs, but they are a U.S. invention. The U.S. military designed and developed portable nuclear weapons (Atomic Demolitions Munitions or "ADMs") during the Vietnam War. The ADMs' purpose was to take out targets like bridges and dams. Of course, the U.S. never detonated an ADM in Vietnam. But in the heat of the arms race, the then U.S.S.R. responded in kind by developing its own version in vast numbers. After the U.S.S.R. broke up, several of the bombs found their way onto the black market in a cash-poor Russia-then into the hands of terrorists.

How dangerous are the bombs? Estimates of the kill power of one ADM: 100,000 dead immediately; multiple hundreds of thousands more dying from radiation-caused cancers.

Intelligence analysts say the targets for terrorist ADMs will probably not be in the West. Their most probable target would be the oil industry in the Middle East, attempting to throw the Western economy into chaos. With only a few well-placed ADMs, terrorists could cripple both production and delivery facilities over a large area. In addition to the immediate damage, sand blown high into the air would help spread radioactive fallout. And, the blast would cause hydrostatic shock waves in the oil pipelines, multiplying the damage factor.

Of course, this would devastate the economies of several Muslim countries, perhaps hurting them more than Western countries that have been developing other sources to satiate their huge appetites for oil. The terrorists' challenge would be to make the West appear to be the guilty party for "making" the terrorists drive them out of Islamic lands.

With a strong anti-Western prejudice already present, al Qaeda and company may be successful in propagandizing a nuclear disaster. But it's more likely to backfire on them. Oil production is the heart of the economies of several Islamic states, and they desperately need the United States, Europe and Japan to continue buying from them.

So, if al Qaeda has nuclear bombs, and it rules out using them in the Middle East, where will it use them? That's a frightening question.