On the heels of U.S. President Bill Clinton's tour of India in March, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (a strong critic of India's bomb) arrived in New Delhi on a fence-mending trip. Soon after came the Turkish premier, a Muslim leader who disapproves of Pakistan's military rule. The diplomatic traffic went both ways as India's defense minister visited Japan and Vietnam. What's behind this flurry of diplomatic activity?

Indian strategists see it as an overdue recognition of their country's world status following nuclear tests in 1998. There are signs of an informal security-cooperation chain forming between India, Japan and Vietnam-all of which share a common strategic concern over China.

India's foreign minister, Jaswant Singh, maintains this is merely India's belated due. "We export no destabilizing or even disturbing ideology," he says. "We have no expansionist designs and we desire no one's land. Civilizationally and culturally, India's presence in Asia is a soothing presence" (Far Eastern Economic Review, April 13, 2000, p. 20).

U.S. interest

In May 1998, India stunned the world by setting off five nuclear explosions in the Rajasthan desert. Nearly two years later, talks between the U.S. and India have failed to get India to the table to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty to halt nuclear testing. Back in March, Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (a Washington think tank) said India's failure to sign would make it harder for New Delhi to "extract economic and technological concessions from the United States" (Far Eastern Economic Review, March 2000, p. 24).

This prediction fell apart with the Clinton visit later that month when animosity between the two countries was put aside. President Clinton toasted a "new beginning" although he had recently described India as "the most dangerous place in the world."

Behind-the-scenes security cooperation has been going on for a long time. In 1995 and 1996, FBI experts became involved in efforts to resolve the kidnapping of several Westerners in Kashmir. Under a new agreement between the two countries, the FBI is to set up a station in New Delhi while its Indian counterpart is to do the same in Washington. During the Gulf War, India quietly granted U.S. military craft refueling rights en route to the Middle East.

Accepting India's nuclear status

A U.S. administration source says the Chinese "would like the U.S. to bear the burden of stripping India of its nuclear capability. That's not going to happen" (ibid., p. 23). Why the Chinese reluctance and now the U.S. acceptance of the nuclear status of India?

President Clinton's visit was seen as a celebration of democracy in Asia, with India at its center. Some U.S. voices are clamoring for a broader reorienting of Asia policy-in India's favor and away from strategic partnership with China. They believe that a partnership with India would better serve U.S. interests, because they see India as a democracy unlike China.

Economically, the U.S. is India's largest market and largest foreign investor. India's large body of computer programmers has helped fuel the Silicon Valley boom. In recent years, major U.S. high-tech firms have moved to India to take advantage of its talent pool and cheap skilled labor.

Americans hope, too, that growing ties may hasten economic reform in India.

Indian navy combats piracy

While India's nuclear weapons and emergent high-tech industry are giving it new respectability, its sizable navy has proved a key in New Delhi's efforts to claim a regional security role. This year, the navy demonstrated its muscle by recovering a Japanese ship that had been hijacked by pirates. India has forged new security ties with both Japan and Vietnam and is more assertive towards China.

Japan was among the countries that strongly denounced India's bomb, backing its words by suspending nearly $4 million in aid. Along with Washington, Tokyo since has come to accept India's nuclear status as fact.

Japan remains the top investor in India and has come to appreciate the growing Indian naval power in maintaining the security of sea traffic through the Indian Ocean. Japanese coast guard ships, along with Indian vessels, plan joint training in tackling piracy. Their cooperation is more than a concern for pirates. Unresolved territorial disputes in the South China Sea make the area volatile. India's defense minister said: "A strong India, economically and militarily well-endowed, will be a very solid agent to see that the sea-lanes are not disturbed and that conflict situations are contained" (Far Eastern Economic Review, April 13, 2000, p. 20).

India has made a similar joint naval training offer to Vietnam to combat piracy. The Vietnamese army, masters of guerrilla warfare, will train Indian officers in jungle fighting and counterinsurgency, an art in strong demand in Kashmir. In return, India will repair and overhaul Russian MIG aircraft belonging to the Vietnamese air force and train its pilots. India will also help Vietnam set up its defense industry for manufacturing small and medium weapons.

All this activity, of course, produces mild alarm bells in Beijing. The Indian response is for China to quit keeping the Pakistani arsenal in business.

Germany seeks India's help

Why would Germany have an interest in India? Because Europe has a tech-skills gap that cannot be satisfied locally. The computer-savvy Indians have for years helped fuel the rise of America's Silicon Valley. Now Europe wants to attract some of Bangalore's cyber elite.

To do that, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder unveiled a special program last March to lure some of India's best and brightest to Germany. This is in the form of special five-year work visas. The task will not be easy as many Europeans still view immigration as unskilled labor and lost jobs. Despite the problems, Germany's high-tech ambitions and skill shortages are shared by its European Union partners. As European Commission President Romano Prodi says, "building e-Europe is top on the agenda."

Asian volatility

India, Pakistan and Bangladesh together form the second most populous region in the world after China. Both India and Pakistan have missile and nuclear capability. It's a disparate area-Pakistan and Bangladesh are mostly Muslim, while India is primarily Hindu. The U.S., Japan and Germany all recognize the economic and military emergence of India.

What role will the new India, along with China, play in prophecy? That's a question to keep in mind, as the focus shifts towards India, adding to the complexity of Asian aspirations in the region. WNP